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An overview

Nov. 7 election will determine state’s direction on abortion, taxes and environment

Jeremy M. Lazarus | 11/2/2023, 6 p.m.
Next week, voters across Virginia will fill 100 seats in the House of Delegates and 40 seats in the state ...
Virginia State Capitol

Next week, voters across Virginia will fill 100 seats in the House of Delegates and 40 seats in the state Senate — and determine whether Democrats or Republicans hold a majority in each house of the General Assembly.

Polls in every locality will be open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 7.

Despite candidates raising and spending tens of millions of dollars, voter interest remains low in an election that observers say will determine the state’s direction on a wide range of issues, ranging from abortion, taxes and protection of the environment.

As of Tuesday, about 571,000 Virginians had voted early or less than half the number who had voted early at the date when the governor’s office and General Assembly seats were at stake in 2021.

Virginia has 6.1 million registered voters, but based on voting levels when only legislative seats were on the ballot, only about 2.3 million voters are projected to participate — creating high anxiety for both parties and their candidates.

Both parties expect the election to be decided by very close margins.

Only a small number of seats are considered highly competitive — eight in the House and eight in the Senate.

Most of the races are clustered in places like Loudoun County and racially diverse Prince William County in Northern Virginia as well as in Hampton Roads.

Although Richmond has no competitive races, Henrico County features two House races and a state Senate race that are among those closely watched. Chesterfield County also has a tight race for delegate as does the Petersburg area.

As the U.S. News & World Report observed, “Enough seats are competitive that just about any combination is conceivable – A GOP Senate takeover, a Democratic Senate hold or a Democratic flip of the House.”

Going into the campaign, Republicans held a 50-46 advantage in the House, with four vacancies, while Democrats held a 22-18 advantage in the Senate.

Democratic candidates have focused heavily on abortion rights — and this election will help determine how potent that issue remains since the U.S. Supreme Court last year overturned its own 50-year decision legalizing abortion nationally and left it to the states to determine abortion rights.

Virginia remains the only southern state where abortion remains legal up almost to 27 weeks and longer based on a determination by several doctors that the procedure is needed to save the life of the mother.

Republican candidates are backing Virginia’s adoption of a Mississippi law that bans abortion after 15 weeks with some exceptions, which Democratic candidates argue is a stepping stone to a complete ban.

Candidates also have sparred over public education spending, job development, traffic congestion other bread-and-butter issues.

Democrats also have sought to rally progressives over Gov. Glenn A. Youngkin’s decision to pull Virginia out of a regional initiative to reduce one of the biggest environmental threats, global warming, and Republican efforts to halt progress on state efforts to end the use of carbon-based fuel.

The final grades for the campaigns will be issued after the polls close next Tuesday.

House races to watch

All 100 seats in the House of Delegates are up for election, but only 54 are contested and just a few involve races where the outcome is uncertain.

Heading into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 7, Democrats hold a 33 to 13 advantage in the 46 uncontested races, according to Ballotpedia. But in the contested races, Republicans already are ahead by at least the same margin.

The bottom line is that all eyes will be on the results in eight toss-up races that will decide whether Democrats or Republicans win control of the lower chamber.

According to Virginia Public Access Project, Ballotpedia and CNalysis, the most competitive races:

21st House District:

Prince William County, rated as leaning Democratic.

Candidates Democrat Joshua Thomas, Marine Corps veteran and an attorney.

Republican John Stirrup, lobbyist and former Prince William supervisor.

22nd House District:

Prince William County, rated as tilting Republican.

Candidates Democrat Travis Nembhard, an attorney.

Republican Ian Lovejoy, former member of Manassas City Council and owner-operator of recruiting firm Reliant Hiring Solutions.

57th House District:

Parts of Henrico and Goochland counties, rated a toss-up with a Republican tilt.

Candidates Democrat Susanna Gibson, nurse practitioner.

Republican David Owen, home builder.

58th House District:

Henrico County, rated as leaning Democratic.

Candidates Two-term Democratic incumbent Rodney Willett, vice president of

Merakata Inc.

Republican challenger Riley Shaia, group fitness instructor at the Tuckahoe YMCA.

65th House District:

Fredericksburg, rated as toss-up with Democratic tilt.

Candidates Democrat Joshua Cole, former delegate, pastor and president of

Stafford County NAACP Branch.

Republican Lee Peters III, captain in the Stafford County Sheriff’s Department.

82nd House District:

Petersburg area, rated as toss-up with Democratic tilt.

Candidates Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams, Virginia State University assistant director of finance.

First-term Republican incumbent Kimberly A. “Kim” Taylor, co-owner and operator of three auto repairs shops with her husband.

89th House District:

Parts of Suffolk and Chesapeake, rated a toss-up.

Candidates Democrat Karen L. Jenkins, Suffolk School Board member and mental health professional.

Republican N. Baxter Ennis, retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel and member of Chesapeake Hospital Authority.

97th House District:

Virginia Beach, rated a toss-up.

Candidates Democratic challenger Michael Fegans, U.S.Air Force veteran

and chief executive of technology firm Outerbridge Technical Solutions.

First-term Republican incumbent Karen Greehalgh, founder and chief executive of Cyber Tyger, a health care and cyber-security firm.

Va. Senate races to watch

Of the 40 Senate races, only five have no competition. Of the 35 other races, these eight are rated as the most competitive,

with the final results considered most likely to determine which party gains a majority by the Virginia Public Access Project, CNalysis and Ballotpedia.

4th Senate District:

Roanoke area, rated as tilting Republican.

Candidates Two-term Republican incumbent David Sutterlein, a real estate agent.

Democratic challenger Trish White-Boyd, a member of the Roanoke City Council and a

home-care business operator.

16th Senate District:

Henrico County, rated as leaning Democratic.

Candidates Two-term Republican incumbent Siobhan S. Dunnavant, an obstetrician-gynecologist.

Democratic challenger Schuyler T. Van Valkenburg, a public high school teacher and three-term member of the House of Delegates.

17th Senate District:

Portsmouth-Suffolk area, rated a toss-up with a slight Democratic tilt.

Candidates.

Republican Emily M. Brewer, three-term delegate and Suffolk beer and wine retailer.

Democrat Clinton “Clint” Jenkins, two-term delegate who helps run family real estate

business.

22nd Senate District:

Virginia Beach, rated as leaning Democratic.

Candidates Incumbent Democrat Aaron R. Rouse, founder-operator of educational nonprofit.

Republican challenger Kevin H. Adams, retired U.S. Navy lieutenant commander and owner-operator of handyman contractor business.

This race is a rematch of the January special election that Sen. Rouse narrowly won to enter the

Senate.

24th Senate District:

Newport News-Williamsburg area, rated a toss-up.

Two-term incumbent Democrat T. Monty Mason, former executive with Visa and LandAmerica Finance Group.

Republican challenger J.D. Diggs, former sheriff for York County and Poquoson.

27th Senate District:

Fredericksburg area, rated a toss-up.

Candidates Democrat Joel Griffin, owner of growth consulting firm and chair of Stafford County Economic Development Authority.

Republican Tara Durant, first-term delegate and former schoolteacher.

Independent Monica Gary, Stafford County supervisor and founding pastor of a community church.

30th Senate District:

Manassas and Prince William County, rated as leaning Democratic.

Candidates Democrat Danica Roem, three-term member of the House, former journalist, musician and mobile yoga studio operator.

Republican William C. Woolf, government relations consultant and former Fairfax policedetective.

31st Senate District:

Loudoun-Fauquier area, rated as leaning Democratic.

Candidates Democrat Russet Perry, attorney, former CIA operative and former assistant Loudoun commonwealth’s attorney.

Republican Juan Pable Segura, co-founder of Babyscripts, a digital maternal health care company.