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Voter turnout is key question in Tuesday elections

10/30/2014, 5:04 p.m.
With the races missing the competitive fire that fuels participation, it’s hard to tell whether the polls will be busy …

U.S. Rep. Robert C. “Bobby” Scott is unopposed for election to his 12th term in Congress.

Petersburg Delegate Rosalyn R. Dance appears to be cruising to an easy victory over challenger Preston T. Brown in the race to succeed Henry L. Marsh III in the state Senate.

And interim Richmond Circuit Court Clerk Edward F. Jewett appears headed to an easy win over his challenger, Emmett Johnson Jafari, in the special election to succeed Bevill Dean, who previously held the post.

The only real question is how many voters will show up on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 4.

With the races missing the competitive fire that fuels participation, it’s hard to tell whether the polls will be busy or relatively empty.

Kirk Showalter, Richmond’s voter registrar, said she initially projected 67,000 of the city’s 130,000 registered voters might show up because of the U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Democrat Mark R. Warner and Republican challenger Edward W. “Ed” Gillespie.

But she is scaling back her forecast amid signs that even that Senate contest is failing to stir much buzz. One sign, she said, that interest in this election is flagging: Absentee ballot requests are below expectations.

Ms. Showalter is still hoping to see a 2006-level turnout of about 54,000 voters, then 54 percent of those registered. That year, participation was heightened by a hot U.S. Senate race in which Democrat Jim Webb won a narrow upset over incumbent Republican George Allen.

But Ms. Showalter considers it possible that this year could resemble 2010. In that midterm, only about 32,000 city voters participated, or about 25 percent of those registered. The only big race that year involved Rep. Scott, who easily beat three largely unknown and underfunded challengers.

Here are the races, besides the U.S. Senate, that will be on the ballot by locality:

Richmond

U.S. House of Representatives: 3rd District, which includes most of the city. Rep. Scott, who is completing his 22nd year in office, is unopposed for another two-year term.

7th District, which includes 15 precincts, mostly in the 1st and 4th City Council districts. Contest features two Randolph-Macon professors, Republican Dave A. Brat and Democrat John K. “Jack” Trammell, and a little-known Libertarian Party candidate, James A. Carr. Dr. Brat, who ousted former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the GOP primary, is considered the likely winner in this reliably GOP district. Dr. Trammell is not believed to have made substantial inroads and still is introducing himself to voters in his ads. Mr. Carr is not considered a factor.

Virginia Senate District 16: Stretches to Hopewell and Petersburg and includes 18 Richmond precincts mostly in the 7th and 8th City Council districts.

Delegate Dance, a nine-year General Assembly veteran, won the Democratic nomination to run in this special election. The winner will serve the final year of Mr. Marsh’s term. Mr. Marsh resigned during the summer after nearly 22 years in the Senate to take a seat on the Alcoholic Beverage Control Board. People already are lining up to run for Delegate Dance’s seat in the Virginia House of Delegates in the belief she will defeat Mr. Brown, a Richmond businessman. Mr. Brown also lost in 2011 to Mr. Marsh by a 2-1 margin in his first bid for the Senate. He is mounting another independent challenge, but remains short of funds and has garnered little visibility for this long-shot run. The winner would need to run for a full, four-year Senate term in 2015.

Circuit Court Clerk: Citywide.

Mr. Jewett, with 29 years of experience in the clerk’s office, has the support of the legal community and the Democratic nomination. He is expected to easily brush off Mr. Jafari, owner of African American Tours. Mr. Jafari also lost in 2011 to Mr. Dean, then the incumbent clerk. The post opened after Mr. Dean resigned in December 2013. Mr. Jewett has served as interim clerk since mid-January.

Henrico County

U.S. House of Representatives: 3rd District, which includes Varina and part of Fairfield district. Rep. Scott is unopposed.

7th District, includes the rest of the county. Three-way contest between front-runner, Dr. Brat, Republican, and two others, Dr. Trammell, Democrat, and Mr. Carr, Libertarian.

School Board: Three Chopt District.

There is a special election in the district to replace Diana Winston, who resigned from the board in 2013. Robert G. Boyle Jr., who replaced her as a board appointee, is not running. Voters will choose between Surya P. Dahkar and Michelle F. “Micky” Ogburn.

Chesterfield County

U.S. House of Representatives: 4th District, which includes Bermuda and portions of Dale, Matoaca and Clover Hill districts. Republican incumbent J. Randy Forbes, who has served 13 years, is the favorite to win two more years. His challengers include Democrat and Chester newspaperman Elliott G. Fausz and Libertarian Party candidate and real estate broker Bo C. Brown.

7th House District, which includes Midlothian and portions of Dale, Matoaca and Clover Hill districts. Dr. Brat, the Republican, is the front-runner in the race with two challengers, Dr. Trammell, a Democrat, and Mr. Carr, a Libertarian.

Virginia Senate District 16: Includes precincts in Bermuda District. Delegate Dance is the front-runner in the special election to fill the vacancy. Mr. Brown, an independent, is her competition.

Circuit Court Clerk: Countywide. Special election to replace Judy Worthington, who resigned in April. Four people are in the race, Republican Wendy S. Hughes, now a clerk in a lower county court, Democrat Peter G. Dunnaville, a lawyer, and independents Kelly F. Ecimovic, a state debt collector, and David W. Schneider, a bail bondsman. Mr. Dunnaville would be the first African-American to hold a constitutional office in the county should he win.