New polling shows Vice President Kamala Harris with a significant lead over former President Donald Trump in Virginia.

A poll by Morning Consult conducted between Aug. 30 and Sept. 8 among 498 likely voters and published Monday has Harris up by 10 percentage points (52%-42%) over Trump in the Commonwealth — roughly the same margin by which Democrat Joe Biden defeated the then-incumbent in 2020 (54%-44%). Among self-identified independent voters, Harris leads Trump by eight points, or 48%-40%.

The survey signals better news for the Harris campaign than a Roanoke College poll released last month, which had the vice president ahead by just three points (47%-44%) and within the margin of error. It also marks a substantial improvement compared to an earlier poll from May that had Biden and Trump tied at 42%-42% in a head-to-head matchup, putting Virginia in play for Republicans for the first time in years.

“For a brief moment, when Biden was at his lowest, it was possible to believe that Virginia would be competitive,” said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “While we always want to see more polling, I’d say a lead of +10 for Harris strongly suggests Virginia is headed for a fifth Democratic presidential victory,” Sabato said, adding that other “in-reach” states for Trump, such as Minnesota, New Hampshire, and New Mexico, “have disappeared from the discussion” since Harris entered the race.

Jeff Ryer, a spokesman for the Trump campaign in Virginia, said in an email that the new polls are “in no way reflective of what we’re hearing at the doors and on the phones from the tens of thousands Virginia voters our thousands of volunteers have personally contacted.”

And since the Democrats have confirmed they have 25 offices and 132 staffers on the ground in Virginia, “it’s obviously not what they are hearing either,” Ryer said.

A spokesman from the Harris campaign declined to comment.

Nationally, the Morning Consult poll finds Harris leading Trump by just three percentage points (49% to 46%), which is roughly in line with the survey’s results among registered voters in the previous weeks.

The survey also found that Harris’ popularity has declined a bit among likely voters over the past week, with voters just one point more likely to hold favorable opinions about her than unfavorable ones (50% to 49%).

But nationwide Harris remains more popular than Trump, whose net favorability rating is 10 points underwater, as she continues to receive more positive news coverage than the former president has ever received in Morning Consult’s tracking dating back to November 2022.

A new Washington Post-Schar School poll released Tuesday morning has Harris ahead of Trump by eight percentage points (50%-42%), largely owed to an 18-point advantage among women voters and by a sense of unity among Democrats.

The survey also found that 53% of Virginia voters have an unfavorable opinion of the former president, while 39% view him more favorably. In contrast, Harris enjoys a 49% favorability rating, with 42% of voters finding her unfavorable.

U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., also is ahead of his Republican challenger, former Navy Capt. Hung Cao, by 12 points, or 53%-41%, the poll says.

The story originally appeared on VirginiaMercury.com.