Will Richmond voters approve a resort and casino project?

That’s the biggest question on the city ballot —– a repeat of 2021 when the proposal narrowly lost.

Despite pouring more than $9 million in cash and in-kind contributions into their campaign, casino advocates have their fingers crossed in hopes that their efforts will pay off with a majority “yes” vote on Election Day next Tuesday, Nov. 7.

In the face of scrappy opposition, casino forces continue to struggle to get their supporters out to the polls in early voting that will end Saturday, Nov. 4. Richmond Grand Resort and Casino is a joint project of Churchill Downs and Urban One. Churchill Downs, is one of the nation’s premier racing, gaming, and entertainment names.

In addition to running the iconic Kentucky Derby each May for over a century, Churchill Downs operates 29 live and historical horse racing and gaming properties in 14 states.

Founded by Cathy Hughes, Urban One is the nation’s largest Black-owned diversified media company, operating more than 50 radio stations around the country and television and digital media assets. Urban One has been part of the Richmond community for over 20 years through its operation of KISS FM, Power 92, Praise 104.7, and community events.

The two companies, in planning for a $562 million casino resort at Commerce Road and Walmsley Boulevard just off Interstate 95, have mounted a massive campaign that has included an Isley Brothers concert, repeated door knocking, phone calls, multiple mailers, radio and TV ads.

The proposed project has won endorsements from the Richmond Free Press and other Richmond newspapers, a former mayor, a former police chief, ministers, a host of business leaders and labor union representatives.

Still that has not generated any big rush to the polls.

In an off-year election, the total vote is at best expected to be down sharply from the 80,000 Richmond residents who voted in the 2021 election.

As of Tuesday, about 14,000 city residents had cast ballots either by mail or in-person at the three sites, City Hall, Hickory Hill Community Center in South Side and city voting headquarters on Laburnum Avenue in North Side, according to Voter Registrar Keith Balmer.

Mr. Balmer is projecting total turnout through Election Day of fewer than 50,000 people, or about two-thirds fewer than in 2021, with others projecting that 35,000 or fewer ballots would be cast in a city with nearly 160,000 registered voters.

The indifference to voting is partly due to the lack of competition in the General Assembly races that also are on the ballot.

While there is tough competition elsewhere, Richmond’s three candidates for the House and two candidates for the state Senate are either unopposed or considered likely victors against weak opposition.

As a result, the casino opposition, led by political strategist Paul Goldman and community activist Farid Alan Schintzius, appears to be doing well among passionate foes of the casino, who largely ignore the fact that a casino-style slot-machine center already exists in the Rosie’s operation on Midlothian Turnpike.

A new public poll that a company called co/efficient conducted between Oct. 23 and 25 of 941 potential voters suggested a virtual tie between “yes” and “no” supporters.

A second loss would be a blow to Mayor Levar M. Stoney and eight members of City Council. They united in backing the project and getting it on the ballot.

The casino has pushed plenty of selling points.

For example, the development, like the three other casinos now in operation in Virginia, is projected to create jobs, including more than 1,500 construction jobs and 1,300 permanent jobs, mostly for city residents.

The proposed gambling mecca also is to include a 55-acre public park, a 3,000-seat concert venue, a production stage for media content, multiple restaurants and shops, a 250-room hotel — a total package that advocates argue would lure thousands of people off Interstate 95 who might not otherwise have stopped.

There are additional selling points: The project will be paid for entirely by the developers without any city funding. The project also is to initially deliver an upfront payment to the city of $26.5 million if the casino measure passes. The casino operation would pay out $30 million a year to the city in tax revenue after it opens.

In a bid to attract more “yes” votes, City Hall has announced that $14 million from the initial upfront payment would be devoted to building new child care centers and that $19 million of any new tax revenue would be used to subsidize child care.

But so far, none of the selling points have softened the opposition, which continues to decry the casino as an exploitive operation that largely requires a lot of working class and low-income losers to generate its profits.

Even though Bristol, Danville and Portsmouth have hailed the casino developments there as positives for their community, the Richmond opposition continues to press the arguments that a casino would be a bad development that would harm residents.

In just a few days, the question of a casino coming to Richmond is going to be answered.